BNB Price Holds Range; Will RSI Divergence Trigger Break?

2025-07-14 20:03:33 分类：Blockchain Query 阅读(9522)

Binance Coin (BNB) has been stuck in a tight range for weeks, barely moving more than 1% over the past month. But beneath this calm surface, a series of subtle but meaningful signals are emerging.

From increasing user participation to signs of whale activity, on-chain data hints that this sideways structure might be nearing a turning point for the BNB price, if the right triggers align.

Active Address Count is Back on the Rise

BNBs active address count has been climbing steadily since early May. After slumping through much of March and April, participation began recovering, with a major higher high marked on June 20, reaching over 1.75 million daily addresses.

BNB price and rising active address count: Glassnode

This isn‘t just a sign. A rising count of active addresses suggests broader user interest, often the base for more sustainable price movements. It shows that the current consolidation isn’t entirely hollow; theres growing organic engagement in the background.

Top 1% Wallet Spike Hints at Quiet Accumulation

Glassnode data also shows something we haven‘t seen all year: a double spike in the percentage of supply held by BNB’s top 1% of addresses. These two surges, on June 21 and June 28, mark the only significant upticks in 2025.

BNB price and spikes in Top 1% supply-held addresses: Glassnode

These top 1% holders, typically whales or institutional addresses, had been flatlining for months. The sudden moves could point to silent OTC buys or redistributions. These wallets usually don‘t chase rallies — they build positions when the price is quiet. That aligns with BNB’s current low-volatility price structure.

The “top 1%” metric tracks the total BNB supply held by the largest addresses. A spike here signals accumulation by the biggest holders, which can precede a move, if its sustained.

Ascending Triangle Pattern and RSI Divergence in Motion

On the daily chart, BNB continues to respect an ascending triangle pattern, with strong horizontal resistance at $665–$693.

This pattern typically signals an upcoming breakout, but its only valid if the structure holds. So far, BNB is trading near $661, staying just under the immediate yet strong resistance level of $665. If BNB price manages to break this level, it would also mean a pattern breakout.

BNB price analysis: TradingView

However, as the ascending triangle pattern has a broad upper trendline, made possible by multiple horizontal support and resistance lines, the BNB price would require more firepower than just a single resistance breach. Heres where it gets interesting. From April 7 to June 22, the BNB price made higher lows, while RSI made lower lows; a classic bullish divergence.

This divergence hints at weakening bearish momentum even as the price holds steady. RSI has since turned back upward, validating the triangle and adding strength to the breakout case. If the current sentiment holds and participation stays high, BNB could eye a move toward $686, $696, or even the longer-term ceiling at $733.

All this bullish structure hinges on one level: $635. A breakdown below this would invalidate both the triangle and the RSI divergence, and would likely come with a drop in active addresses or a reversal in whale holdings. Thats your red flag zone.

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